Disney (DIS) Q4 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

Core Insights - Analysts project Walt Disney (DIS) will report quarterly earnings of $1.03 per share, a decline of 9.7% year over year, with revenues expected to reach $22.88 billion, an increase of 1.4% from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.4% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical research shows a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Revenue- Sports' at $3.97 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of +1.5% [5] - 'Revenue- Sports- ESPN' is also projected to reach $3.97 billion, indicating a +2.9% change from the previous year [5] - 'Revenue- Experiences' is expected to be $8.73 billion, showing a +5.9% increase year over year [5] - 'Revenue- Entertainment- Direct-to-Consumer' is forecasted at $6.30 billion, with a year-over-year change of +9% [6] Subscriber Metrics - The estimated number of paid subscribers for ESPN+ is 24.49 million, down from 25.60 million a year ago [6] - Hulu's paid subscriber count is expected to be 56.20 million, up from 47.40 million in the same quarter last year [7] - The average monthly revenue per paid subscriber for Disney+ (International) is projected at $7.73, compared to $6.95 a year ago [7] - For Disney+ (Domestic), the average monthly revenue per paid subscriber is estimated at $8.01, up from $7.70 a year ago [8] - The number of paid subscribers for Disney+ (Core) is expected to reach 130.74 million, compared to 122.70 million in the same quarter last year [8] - The number of paid subscribers for Disney+ (International) is projected at 71.30 million, up from 66.70 million a year ago [9] - The number of paid subscribers for Hulu (Live TV + SVOD) is expected to be 4.52 million, slightly down from 4.60 million a year ago [10] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Disney shares have returned +1.4%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +0.3% change [11] - Disney currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance may align with the overall market in the near future [11]