上市即巅峰？除中签的全是套牢盘，3天跌40%，卖还是等？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the extreme volatility and risks associated with new stock listings in the A-share market, where initial high returns can quickly turn into significant losses for investors. Group 1: Stock Performance and Volatility - On November 26, 2024, a new stock "Hong Sifang" was purchased at 120 yuan, reaching a peak of 160 yuan, resulting in a 30% unrealized gain, but the next day it plummeted to 90 yuan, leading to a 17% loss upon selling [1] - Wireless Media's stock surged from an opening price of 29.11 yuan to a peak of 361 yuan within four trading days, only to drop 64.48% in a single day to 80.99 yuan, causing losses of up to 78% for late investors [3] - In 2024, the average first-day gain for new stocks was 249.97%, significantly higher than 2023's 66.45% and 2022's 30.2%, indicating a trend of "listing as the peak" [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Over 50% of new stocks experience a price correction or crash shortly after listing, with most investors who buy at the first-day closing price facing short-term losses [3] - The absence of price limits in the first five trading days of new listings amplifies stock price volatility, turning the market into a speculative frenzy [3][6] - High turnover rates, such as 87.39% for Wireless Media, indicate that trading is driven more by short-term speculation rather than long-term investment [5] Group 3: Psychological Factors and Market Sentiment - Investors often have unrealistic expectations for new stocks, driven by a "new stock always profits" mentality, leading to blind following of market trends [7][8] - The allure of new stocks, combined with a low initial offering price, can lead to severe overvaluation and subsequent losses for those buying at inflated prices [9][10] - The speculative nature of new stock trading is exacerbated in bull markets, where optimism can lead to excessive price inflation and subsequent crashes [18] Group 4: Implications for Investors - Investors face a dilemma when new stocks drop significantly: whether to cut losses or hold out for a potential rebound, often leading to a cycle of further declines [15] - The market does not guarantee recovery for investors who choose to wait, as seen in the rapid decline of Wireless Media's stock from 361 yuan to around 80 yuan [16] - The increasing number of IPOs in 2024 suggests that new stock allocations may not guarantee profits, necessitating a reassessment of investment strategies and risk tolerance [18]