JPMorgan Says Chevron Investor Day Will Highlight Oil, Gas, LNG Market Dynamics

Core Viewpoint - Analyst Arun Jayaram anticipates that Chevron will highlight its disciplined approach to managing macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility during the upcoming Investor Day on November 12, 2025 [2]. Group 1: Financial Projections - Chevron is expected to outline how its portfolio generates cash flow to support growth under a moderately conservative price outlook [2]. - A projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7% in production is anticipated from 2025 to 2030, based on a reference price of $65 per barrel and $3.75 per thousand cubic feet [3]. - The analyst projects a 6% CAGR in cash flow and an annual cash return yield of 8% to 9% [4]. Group 2: Strategic Focus - Key points from the Investor Day may include a detailed roadmap through the end of the decade, emphasizing disciplined capital spending, technological innovation, and a commitment to dividend growth and predictable share buybacks [3]. - An update on the power partnership with GE Vernova is expected, which could enhance Chevron's substantial Permian gas production [3]. Group 3: Market Context - Since the last Investor Day in February 2023, Chevron has strengthened its portfolio through the HES merger and the TCO FGP reaching full capacity [5]. - Oil and gas prices have decreased from $81 per barrel and $3.29 per thousand cubic feet, while OPEC+ output has increased amid persistent inflation and trade tensions [5]. - Despite geopolitical tensions, oil prices are trading in the low-to-mid $60s, and U.S. natural gas is benefiting from LNG growth and rising AI-driven power demand [6]. Group 4: Recent Performance - In the latest earnings release, Chevron reported adjusted earnings of $1.85 per share, down from $2.51 a year ago but above the consensus estimate of $1.71 [7]. - Operationally, U.S. and global production increased by 27% and 21% year-over-year, respectively, in the quarter [7].