全球最大消费市场该是啥样

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo concluded in Shanghai, showcasing a record number of participating companies, highlighting the vitality and attractiveness of the Chinese market [2] - The event prompted deeper reflections on the responsibilities of the world's largest consumer market, emphasizing the need for a balance between economic strength and structural integrity [2] Market Size and Structure - In 2024, the United States is projected to have personal consumption expenditures of approximately $19.8 trillion, the largest globally; however, its consumption structure is heavily skewed towards services, which account for nearly 70% [2] - The over-reliance on certain service sectors, such as healthcare and finance, poses a burden on American consumers, suggesting that the true impact of the U.S. market may be overstated from a global trade perspective [2] - A truly influential consumer market should see a synergistic development of goods and services to meet diverse consumer needs and reflect a balanced economic operation [2] Openness and Global Integration - The largest consumer market should act as a "gathering place" for global goods rather than a "protectionist" entity, with the U.S. being a significant net importer influencing global supply chains [3] - The U.S. has leveraged its market power in trade negotiations, but unilateral protectionist policies, such as recent tariff increases, have disrupted global supply chains and economic growth [3] - In contrast, China is expanding its openness, providing opportunities for global enterprises, with a cumulative import of consumer goods amounting to 7.4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [3] - China is also enhancing its international cooperation through economic partnership agreements and tax exemptions for products from 53 African countries, with the Republic of Congo being the first beneficiary [3] Innovation and Market Dynamics - Innovation is a key driver for maintaining the leading position of the consumer market, particularly in digital consumption, with online retail sales in China expected to reach 15.5 trillion yuan in 2024 [4] - The "Guochao" phenomenon reflects cultural confidence, transforming the domestic market into a unique cultural consumption hub, enhancing market efficiency and consumer choice [4] - China's policies promoting sustainable consumption, such as the trade-in program for old products, not only stimulate consumption but also advance the adoption of green and intelligent products [5] Inclusive Growth and Market Responsibility - The growth of the consumer market should benefit a broader population, promoting inclusive growth, as evidenced by the rapid rise of rural consumption outpacing urban growth [5] - The market must also set standards for fair competition and consumer protection to ensure quality and equity in growth [5] - With a population exceeding 1.4 billion, China is poised to become the largest consumer market by total scale, but the focus should also be on the quality of development [5] - The largest consumer market must balance openness and protection, innovation and regulation, as well as growth and sustainability, to create stable expectations for global consumers [5]