甲醇或继续偏弱运行

Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is currently characterized by "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand," leading to a bearish trend in methanol futures prices, with the 2601 contract price falling to around 2100 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Production - Domestic methanol production capacity has steadily increased, reaching 112.55 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, with production rising to 91.82 million tons, up 9.3% year-on-year [2]. - The average operating rate for methanol plants remains high at 84.63%, with a month-on-month increase of 4.25% and a year-on-year increase of 2.35% [2]. - Weekly average methanol production has reached 1.9921 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 96,300 tons [2]. Import Dynamics - Methanol imports remain elevated, with September 2025 imports at 1.4269 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 332,900 tons but a year-on-year increase of 178,100 tons [3]. - Despite temporary production halts in Iran, overall supply expectations remain robust, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [3]. Demand and Inventory Pressure - The demand side for methanol is weak, particularly in the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) sector, which faces risks of declining operating rates [4]. - Traditional downstream industries, such as formaldehyde, are operating at around 30% capacity, contributing to the overall weak demand [4]. - As of November 7, methanol inventories at ports in East and South China reached 1.2861 million tons, a significant year-on-year increase of 251,800 tons, indicating a growing inventory pressure that constrains price recovery [4]. - The current inventory situation, especially in coastal ports, has reached historically high levels, exacerbating downward pressure on the market [4].