Core Viewpoint - Traders are preparing for increased volatility in the US dollar as the federal government is expected to reopen and a series of economic data, including the non-farm report, is about to be released [1][3]. Group 1: Government Shutdown and Economic Data - The US Senate has advanced a temporary funding bill to end a record 40-day government shutdown, requiring a formal vote and approval from the House and President Trump [3]. - The release of economic data may be delayed until government operations resume, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's policy decision scheduled for December 10 [3]. - The absence of economic data could mask signs of structural slowdown in hiring, which may benefit the dollar [3]. Group 2: Dollar Volatility and Market Reactions - Dollar volatility, which had previously decreased, is now expected to rise as traders anticipate fluctuations in exchange rates ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and the resumption of data releases [4]. - The dollar index experienced a slight decline, marking its fourth consecutive day of losses [4]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives on Dollar Outlook - Analysts from various institutions express differing views on the dollar's future, with some expecting volatility to increase as backlog data is released, while others foresee potential downward risks for the dollar depending on employment data [5]. - The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) notes signs of localized weakness in the labor market, which could lead to a reassessment of December rate cut expectations, potentially weakening the dollar [5]. - The Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) suggests that a strong labor market post-government shutdown could reinforce the dollar's strength [5].
美国政府停摆尾声埋隐患：数据“堰塞湖”或引爆汇市 交易员紧急对冲美元波动风险
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-10 23:21