玉米稳步上行可期

Core Insights - The global corn supply remains ample as the new season's corn is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to a continuous decline in domestic corn prices in China. However, as supply-side pressures are fully digested and demand enters a peak season, corn prices are expected to gradually rise [1] Group 1: Production Data - The International Grains Council forecasts that global corn production for the 2025/2026 season will remain stable at approximately 1.297 billion tons. In China, the corn planting area has increased by 134,000 hectares, a growth of 0.3%, while the yield per hectare has risen by 71 kg, or about 1.1%. Overall, corn production in China has increased by 4.08 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.38% [2] Group 2: Import Trends - Due to trade disputes between China and the U.S. and Canada, imports of grains, including corn, are expected to decrease. Barley imports are projected to fall below 10 million tons, while sorghum imports are estimated to be between 5.5 million and 6.5 million tons. The recent decline in corn prices has diminished the substitution advantage of other grains against corn. For the 2025-2026 period, corn imports are expected to be around 6 million tons, not exceeding the quota limit of 7.2 million tons [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand - Corn consumption in China is primarily driven by feed and deep processing sectors. As the fourth quarter approaches, demand from livestock, particularly broilers and pigs, is expected to rise, supporting corn feed demand. Additionally, after mid-October, profits for domestic starch and deep processing enterprises are anticipated to return to profitability and continue to rise, boosting production willingness. Data shows that by the end of October, the corn consumption of major deep processing enterprises increased by 6.71% week-on-week [4] Group 4: Inventory Stability - Domestic corn inventory is expected to stabilize around 41 million tons after rebounding in the 2022-2023 season. As of the end of October, the inventory of major deep processing enterprises was 2.827 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7.82% but a year-on-year decrease of 13.41%. The inventory-to-consumption ratio for the new corn year remains reasonable, which will effectively buffer price fluctuations caused by supply growth. Despite a decrease in land rent, rising labor costs limit the decline in planting costs in major corn-producing regions, keeping planting returns at a relatively low level and constraining the downward space for corn prices [5]