成本支撑偏强 烧碱跌势或将放缓

Core Viewpoint - The domestic caustic soda industry is experiencing significant capacity expansion, with total production capacity expected to exceed 49 million tons by the end of 2024, continuing into 2025 despite a slowdown in new capacity additions in the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The overall capacity utilization rate for domestic caustic soda plants has increased to 84.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous week and 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, driven by new capacity stabilizing and strong production profits [1] - In early November, eight plants are expected to restart operations, significantly outpacing the four plants scheduled for maintenance, which may lead to increased supply pressure [2] - The execution of maintenance plans will be a key variable affecting supply elasticity, as some companies may delay maintenance to maintain high operational loads [2] Group 2: Downstream Demand - The downstream demand for caustic soda is diversified, with alumina being the primary consumer, accounting for over 30% of consumption, but alumina prices have been declining since mid-July 2025 due to increased supply [3] - The overall operating rate in the caustic soda industry has been significantly lower than the same period in 2024, as companies have reduced production in response to weak demand and profit expectations [3] - Non-alumina sectors are currently in a traditional off-season, with limited demand for caustic soda, primarily driven by essential small orders [4] Group 3: Cost Factors - The price of coal, a key component in caustic soda production, has increased by 15.59% since the long holiday, raising production costs and providing support against price declines [5] - Seasonal demand for electricity is expected to rise due to cold weather, which will further increase coal consumption [5] - Coal supply constraints and low inventory levels at northern ports are expected to maintain upward pressure on coal prices, providing cost support for caustic soda [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The caustic soda market is facing a core contradiction of increasing supply and weak demand, leading to overall pressure on the fundamentals [6] - Despite the supply increase, the lack of marginal demand drivers is expected to limit the downward price movement of caustic soda, resulting in a predominantly weak oscillation in prices [6]