沪银价格仍存上涨空间

Group 1: U.S. Government and Economic Outlook - The U.S. federal government is working towards ending the "shutdown" with plans to introduce funding bills for various sectors, including agriculture and defense, while a short-term funding bill is also being discussed to extend current funding until the end of January [1] - As of November 5, the U.S. Treasury's general account had $942.7 billion in cash, down from $983.8 billion the previous week, but still above the target of $850 billion, indicating potential liquidity release once the government reopens [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal debates regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some officials advocating for multiple 50 basis point cuts to return to neutral rates, while others caution against rapid cuts due to inflation risks [2] - Employment data shows mixed signals, with October ADP job additions at 42,000, but concerns remain over labor demand as job vacancies decreased and layoffs increased significantly [2] Group 3: Liquidity in the U.S. Banking Sector - As of November 5, U.S. bank reserves increased to $2.85 trillion, indicating a slight easing of liquidity tension in the banking sector, with the Federal Reserve providing liquidity support through various tools [3] - The commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) default rate rose to 11.8%, raising concerns about the office real estate sector and suggesting that liquidity pressures may persist [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to major power competition, are influencing central banks, including South Korea and China, to consider gold purchases, which may support precious metal prices [4] - The outlook for precious metals suggests potential upward price movement, with specific support and resistance levels identified for gold and silver [5]