美股季报盈利增长“遍地开花” 德银看好标普500年底到7000点

Core Viewpoint - The robust profit growth of U.S. companies this quarter and the expectation for this trend to continue provide strong support for investors betting on the stock market's upward momentum [1] Group 1: Earnings Growth - The third-quarter earnings growth rate is expected to reach 13.6% year-on-year, close to a two-year high, with a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 6.5%, among the highest in the past 15 years [1] - Deutsche Bank forecasts a 14% year-on-year earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter, driven by holiday consumer spending and technology procurement demand [1] - Excluding the "seven giants" in the technology sector, the remaining 493 S&P 500 constituents showed an impressive earnings growth rate of 10.84%, double the pre-season forecast of 5.28% [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Deutsche Bank sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 7000 points, approximately 4% higher than the previous Friday's closing price, indicating a potential annual increase of about 19% for 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson agrees with the optimistic view, noting that strong earnings will drive the stock market up to 2026, with clear signs of earnings recovery and stronger pricing power among U.S. companies [2] Group 3: Earnings Breadth - Multiple indicators show that the breadth of earnings growth has expanded, which is crucial for maintaining market momentum, with the number of sectors in the S&P 500 showing double-digit growth increasing from two to six [2] - The strong performance of the technology sector is complemented by exceptional results from non-technology sectors, indicating a broad-based earnings recovery [3] Group 4: Cautionary Factors - Despite the overall optimistic earnings outlook, there are cautionary signs, including a weak labor market and declining consumer confidence, which could impact pricing power [4] - Concerns about credit quality have arisen following recent corporate failures, with warnings from JPMorgan's CEO about potential hidden risks [4] - The performance lag of consumer-facing companies raises concerns, as earnings declines in essential and non-essential consumer goods reflect consumers' unwillingness to accept higher prices [4] Group 5: Overall Earnings Outlook - Overall, the earnings outlook remains optimistic, with third-quarter earnings exceeding expectations, reinforcing this positive sentiment [5] - The moderate recovery in fourth-quarter earnings expectations, following prior downward adjustments, sets a foundation for significant growth in the current quarter [5]