美联储内部分歧加剧

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding further monetary easing have become more pronounced, complicating the decision-making process for Chairman Jerome Powell as the December meeting approaches [2] Group 1: Diverging Views on Monetary Policy - St. Louis Fed President Musalem expresses skepticism about further monetary easing, emphasizing the need for caution and stating that the current inflation rate is closer to 3% rather than the Fed's 2% target [3] - Musalem highlights that financial conditions, including stock valuations and housing prices, are high, and the labor market is cooling, suggesting that measures to curb inflation should continue [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly shows a more open attitude towards rate cuts, noting that wage growth is slowing and tariffs have not broadly increased inflation [4] - Daly is closely monitoring productivity improvements from AI applications, which could drive economic growth without exacerbating inflation [4] - Fed Governor Miran advocates for a more significant rate cut, suggesting a 50 basis point reduction at the upcoming meeting, citing evidence of declining inflation and a weak labor market [5] Group 2: Employment Market Uncertainty - The employment market's current state is unclear due to government shutdowns, with the Chicago Fed predicting a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest in four years [5] - A New York Fed survey indicates a worsening outlook for unemployment, with a 1.4 percentage point increase in the probability of rising unemployment over the next 12 months, reaching 42.5% [6] - Citigroup economists suggest that recent layoffs by large companies may lead to an increase in initial unemployment claims, although the timing and scale remain uncertain [6] - Wells Fargo's economist notes that while risks of a significant economic slowdown cannot be ruled out, the job market appears stable without widespread layoffs [7] - As of the report's publication, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 72% to 63%, indicating uncertainty in market expectations [7]