玻璃期价创阶段性新低

Core Viewpoint - Glass futures prices have significantly declined, with the main contract dropping nearly 4%, reaching a four-month low, primarily due to weak demand from the real estate sector [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since October, glass production companies have been accumulating inventory, with sales improving slightly in the last week of October, but overall inventory levels remain historically high [1][2]. - The real estate sector's completion area has decreased, leading to a decline in glass demand during what is typically a peak season, with a reported 15.3% year-on-year drop in completed housing area from January to September 2025 [1][2]. - The average order duration for glass deep processing enterprises has fallen to 9-10 days, significantly lower than the 12-13 days seen in the same period last year [1]. Price Trends - Post-National Day holiday, average spot prices for glass have dropped by nearly 100 yuan per ton, with specific regional declines: 120 yuan in North China, 80 yuan in Central China, and 90 yuan in East China [1]. - Current average profit for float glass enterprises is reported at -32 yuan per ton, marking a continuous decline over four weeks, indicating a low valuation level [2]. Market Outlook - Future glass price trends will largely depend on the balance between supply and demand, with potential for inventory accumulation if supply remains stable or decreases only slightly [3]. - The industry faces a supply surplus, and short-term improvements are unlikely, suggesting that upstream companies should consider selling hedging opportunities [3]. - The ongoing transition to gas from coal in some production lines has slightly alleviated supply pressure, with a reported decrease in production by 2,400 tons to 159,135 tons [2].