房奴与无房者没差别？内行人：再过几年，差距会很真实？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting experiences of "homeowners" burdened by mortgages and "renters" enjoying flexibility, highlighting the long-term advantages of homeownership despite short-term challenges [1][2][4]. Group 1: Current Housing Market Trends - The average housing price-to-income ratio in major Chinese cities is 12.8, indicating that a typical family would need nearly 13 years of savings to afford a home without spending on other necessities [2]. - The rental rate among individuals under 30 in first-tier cities has reached 78.3%, a 15 percentage point increase since 2020, reflecting a shift towards long-term renting [2]. Group 2: Long-term Benefits of Homeownership - Homeownership serves as an effective hedge against inflation, with property values in first-tier cities increasing by an average of 16 times from 1998 to 2025, significantly outpacing CPI growth [4][5]. - Mortgage payments act as a forced savings mechanism, with homeowners achieving a savings rate of over 30%, compared to an average of 13% for renters [5]. - Fixed-rate mortgages do not increase with inflation, while rents have risen by an average of 27.3% from 2020 to 2025, making homeownership financially advantageous over time [5][6]. Group 3: Social and Psychological Factors - Homeownership is associated with increased social status and security, with 78.6% of respondents in a survey considering homeownership an important indicator of personal achievement [7]. - Owning property is often linked to significant life events, such as children's education, with data showing that children from non-school district homes have a significantly lower chance of being admitted to prestigious schools [7]. Group 4: Cost Comparisons - The total cost of homeownership over 30 years is estimated at approximately 140 million for a 1 million property, while renting the same property would cost around 90 million, highlighting the long-term financial benefits of buying [8]. - A financial analysis indicated that the long-term cost of homeownership is about 32% lower than renting, even when accounting for additional expenses like renovations and property fees [8]. Group 5: Challenges of Homeownership - High property prices and down payments deter many young people, with average new home prices in first-tier cities reaching 56,000 yuan per square meter [10]. - New homeowners in first-tier cities allocate an average of 47% of their income to mortgage payments, significantly exceeding the internationally recognized threshold of 30% [10]. - Homeownership reduces flexibility, as significant capital is tied up in property, limiting opportunities for relocation or investment in other ventures [11].