Core Viewpoint - Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (02373) is positioned as a leading enterprise in the domestic beauty and medical beauty service sector, with strong brand reputation and operational capabilities. The company is expected to see significant performance growth due to deepening digital transformation, improved industry chain layout, and ongoing store expansion [1]. Group 1: Financial Projections - The projected net profit for Meili Tianyuan from 2025 to 2027 is estimated to be 337 million, 458 million, and 588 million RMB respectively, with previous estimates adjusted due to the acquisition's expected contribution [1]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.4, 15.0, and 11.7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price set at 42.64 HKD based on a 20x PE for 2026 [1]. Group 2: Acquisition Details - Meili Tianyuan plans to acquire 100% of Shanghai Siyuanli Industrial Co., Ltd. for a total consideration of 1.25 billion RMB, marking a significant acquisition following the purchase of the second-largest beauty service brand, Nairui'er [2]. - Siyuanli is recognized as the third-largest beauty service brand in China, with projected revenues of 850 million RMB and a net profit of 81 million RMB for 2024 [2]. Group 3: Operational Insights - As of June 30, 2025, Siyuanli operates 163 high-end beauty service stores and 19 medical beauty clinics across 48 cities, with over 90% of its revenue generated from first-tier and new first-tier cities [3]. - The acquisition is expected to increase Meili Tianyuan's active direct member base by 44%, enhancing its "dual beauty + dual healthcare" business model [3]. Group 4: Transaction Highlights - The acquisition is valued at a PE ratio of 17.2, significantly lower than Meili Tianyuan's current PE of approximately 29.2 and the industry average of 21.1 [4]. - The payment structure includes 325 million RMB in cash, 510 million RMB in acquisition loans, and 415 million RMB in share payments, with the deal expected to close in December 2025 [4]. Group 5: Strategic Positioning - Post-acquisition, Meili Tianyuan, Nairui'er, and Siyuanli will collectively dominate the top three positions in China's beauty service industry, with over 734 stores and a market coverage of 42% [5]. - The integration of Nairui'er’s operational experience is anticipated to enhance Siyuanli's efficiency and profitability through supply chain collaboration and digital transformation efforts [5].
华创证券：维持美丽田园医疗健康(02373)“强推”评级 目标价42.64港元