证 券 研 究 报 告 【专题报告】 指数基金调样交易策略研究 指数 ETF 规模不断扩大，在指数调样日的交易对市场冲击显现。 指数 ETF 投资规模持续攀升，宽基指数 ETF 成增长核心力量，指数调仓效应 凸显。本文主要研究如何降低 ETF 基金跟踪误差，测算调仓成交量分配和市 场冲击，为指数基金调仓算法提供使用建议。 多数指数基金提前 3 天换仓，在指数调样生效前一交易日成交量达到峰值。 以指数调样生效日为 T+0 日，指数调样成交量从 T-3 日逐步放大，并在 T-1 达 到峰值，指数调样后被调入调出股票交易量迅速下降至历史平均值。价格走势 上部分指数提前调样 5-4 日可以获得调仓收益或相对较低的调仓成本，3 日内 调仓成本迅速上升。 在指数调样生效前三日按照 2：3：5 的中枢比例换仓，并做调整。 如果以历史成交量分布作为指数调仓比例，建议 T-1 日作为主要调仓日，T-3 日：T-2 日：T-1 日调仓交易量占比为 2:3:5，并以此为基础综合考虑价格变动， 冲击成本，可适当下浮 T-3/T-2 日调仓占比，上浮 T-1 日调仓占比。 红利指数和沪深 300 指数推荐使用 MOC 算法，中证 10 ...

机构：华泰证券 研究员：樊俊豪/孙丹阳 据公司公告，7 月10 日-11 日，公司累计回购6.05 万股公司股份，总交易金额176.2 万港元，成交均价 约29.12 港元。股份回购彰显管理层对于公司长期发展信心，亦有利于提升集团资本市场价值及股东回 报能力。 盈利预测与估值 考虑到公司25H1 生美基石业务内生增长强劲、亚健康医疗服务快增放量，我们上调公司25-27 年归母 净利润至3.20/3.69/4.20 亿元（25E-27E CAGR为22%，较前值分别+1.6%/+0.4%+/0.3%），对应EPS分别 为1.36/1.57/1.78元。可比公司25E 一致预测PE 均值17 倍，考虑公司为美容与保健品牌龙头，正积极优 化股东结构、落实回购以提升自身资本市场价值，同时积极探索外延并购机会，给予25 年25xPE，目标 价37.36HKD（汇率0.91；前值37.00 HKD，对应25 年25 倍PE）。 风险提示：会员向医美/抗衰转化降速；市场竞争加剧；医疗事故风险。 公司发布业绩预告，预计25H1 收入将不少于14.5 亿元/yoy27%，经调整净利润不少于1.75 亿 元/yoy33%，净利润 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 37.36 HKD [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of at least 1.45 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 27%, and an adjusted net profit of at least 175 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33% [1][6]. - The company's business model, focusing on "Double Beauty + Double Health," is driving robust performance, with a 10% year-on-year increase in organic customer traffic for the first half of 2025 [1][2]. - The management's confidence in the company's long-term development is highlighted by a recent share buyback, which totaled 60,500 shares at an average price of approximately 29.12 HKD [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 320 million, 369 million, and 420 million RMB respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% [4][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 1.36, 1.57, and 1.78 RMB respectively [4][10]. Revenue Structure - The board attributes the performance improvement to the continuous refinement of the "Double Beauty + Double Health" business model, which has led to an increase in the proportion of high-margin business revenue [2][10]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the beauty and health sector, actively optimizing shareholder structure and exploring acquisition opportunities to enhance market value [4][10].

经营稳步向上，提升奈瑞儿持股充实利润。2Q25 公司宣布拟进一步收购广州奈瑞儿20%股权，交易完 成后对该企业持股比例增至90%，体现公司持续完善"双美+双保健"商业模式、深耕大健康产业的决 心，预计将显著提升公司归母净利润及每股盈利能力。我们认为公司在美丽与健康管理领域拥有良好的 品牌力、渠道网络及客户基础，凭借双美协同的一站式美丽健康服务模式，突破行业高经营成本痛点。 高粘性客群、数字化中台助力单店提效，叠加高经营杠杆带来的利润弹性，以内生增长+外延并购协同 转化，有望进一步扩大领先优势，夯实龙头地位。 风险提示：客流低于预期、生美-医美导流不及预期、行业竞争恶化。 引入多方优质资金，国际化战投赋能公司视野。公司主要股东中信产业投资基金CPE 通过一系列相关 协议获完成相关交易，出售其所持有的约5133 万股本公司股份，交易对象包括外资长线医疗健康领域 基金、科技创新战略投资基金、国际领先的长线基金、国际优质对冲基金等，完成该系列交易后CPE 将不再作为公司主要股东。 坚定提升资本市场价值，稳健迈向港股通目标。公司于2025 年3 月推出资本市场价值提升计划，并通过 三大战略举措持续释放投资价值，已初见成 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.08 股东结构优化顺利，龙头经营稳步向上 美丽田园医疗健康(2373) 6935023 | 风险提示：客流低于预期、生美-医美导流不及预期、行业竞争恶化。 | | --- | | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万人民币） | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1780.74 | 1635.41 | 2145.07 | 2572.20 | 3076.26 | 3313.03 | 3590.85 | | (+/-)% | 18.5 | -8.2 | 31.2 | 19.9 | 19.6 | 7.7 | 8.4 | | 毛利润 | 833.79 | 717.84 | 977.10 | 1190.00 | 1444.49 | 1557.17 | 1701.49 | | 净利润 | 193.48 | 103.11 | 215.66 | 228.46 | 307.65 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has proposed a capital market value enhancement plan for 2025-2027, focusing on increasing dividend payouts, optimizing shareholder structure, and implementing long-term incentive mechanisms for management [1] Group 1: Capital Market Value Enhancement Plan - The company aims to use no less than 50% of its annual net profit attributable to shareholders for dividends from 2025 to 2027, barring special circumstances [1] - The company plans to attract high-quality long-term institutional investors to improve market liquidity and trading activity [1] - A core management equity incentive plan will be implemented, with performance indicators covering both revenue and profit growth for 2025-2027 [1] Group 2: Shareholder Structure Optimization - As of June 25, 2025, CPE has reached agreements to sell approximately 51 million shares (about 21.77% of total shares), with investors including foreign long-term healthcare funds and leading international hedge funds [1] - The exit of CPE is expected to alleviate upward pressure on the company's stock price and enhance market liquidity through the entry of long-term funds [1] Group 3: Business Growth and M&A Opportunities - The company has shown stable internal growth, with a 14.5% year-on-year increase in rights fees to 510 million yuan and a 9.7% increase in sales to 550 million yuan during the Goddess Festival promotion [1] - The company plans to increase its stake in Nairui by investing 100 million yuan to acquire 20% of its shares, raising its ownership to 90% [1] - The company is positioned to potentially acquire other leading beauty brands to further increase market share and performance [1] Group 4: Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 290 million, 340 million, and 380 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 25%, 17%, and 14% respectively [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios based on the closing price on July 3 are projected to be 22, 19, and 16 times for the respective years [2]

Company Overview - The original major shareholder CPE has reached a series of agreements to sell approximately 51.329 million shares, representing 21.77% of the company's total issued shares (excluding treasury shares), and will no longer be a major shareholder after the completion of this series of transactions [1][2] - The investors involved in this transaction include foreign long-term healthcare funds, strategic investment funds for technological innovation, leading international long-term funds, and high-quality international hedge funds [1] Comments on Shareholder Structure - The exit of CPE and the introduction of international long-term capital are expected to optimize the shareholder structure and improve market liquidity [2] - The entry of high-quality international investors is anticipated to bring rich industry resources and an international perspective, injecting new momentum into the company's business expansion and innovation [2] Business Performance - For the period from January to May 2025, the company reported a more than 20% year-on-year increase in both equity consumption and net consumption [2] - By business segment, the beauty and wellness sector grew by over 20%, medical beauty increased by 10%, and sub-health medical services surged by over 50% [2] - The integration of the acquired company Nairui is progressing smoothly, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and improve profit margins [2] Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on a "dual beauty + dual wellness" model for synergistic development, with a positive outlook on growth driven by both internal and external factors [2] - Internally, the company is optimizing single-store operational efficiency and increasing the penetration rate of value-added services [2] - Externally, the successful integration of Nairui is expected to continue expanding membership assets and national layout through acquisitions [2] Management Incentives and Profit Distribution - The company has introduced equity incentives for the management team, with performance targets covering revenue and profit for the next three years [3] - A long-term shareholder return mechanism has been established, with plans to allocate no less than 50% of annual net profit attributable to shareholders for dividends from 2025 to 2027 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 remains unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 22x for 2025 and 20x for 2026 based on net profit excluding non-recurring items [3] - The target price has been raised by 68% to HKD 37, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2025 and 24x for 2026, indicating a 22% upside potential [3]

Group 1 - CPE plans to sell approximately 51.32 million shares, representing 21.77% of the total share capital, and will no longer be the major shareholder after the transaction [1] - The entry of long-term quality funds is expected to stabilize and improve the company's shareholding structure, with new shareholders including foreign long-term healthcare funds and leading international hedge funds [1] - The company has successfully implemented key strategic measures, including optimizing the shareholder structure, maintaining high dividends (not less than 50% from 2025 to 2027), and continuing long-term incentive mechanisms [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of approximately 290 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 27%, corresponding to a valuation of 23x [2] - The integration of the Nairu brand is yielding continuous results, and the health business is experiencing explosive growth, effectively countering the pressure from the medical beauty sector [2] - The exit of CPE is seen as a factor that alleviates previous stock price pressures, contributing to a more favorable outlook for the company's performance [2]

Core Insights - The company has a competitive advantage due to high-quality membership and comprehensive lifecycle management, with traditional beauty services as the foundation and medical beauty and sub-health services extending customer lifecycles, leading to high customer retention [1] - The company is focusing on increasing dividend ratios, optimizing shareholder structure, and implementing long-term incentive mechanisms, which may enhance liquidity and indicate potential for PE valuation recovery [1] - The company has raised its target price and maintains a buy rating [1] Business Performance - In 2024, the beauty and health service revenue reached 1.443 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, with organic growth of 6%. By the end of 2024, the number of direct and franchise stores reached 239 and 276, respectively, with net new openings of 68 and 77 stores during the year [1] - The company plans to further acquire 20% of Guangzhou Nairui's shares, increasing its stake to 90%, and is expected to continue industry consolidation and business acquisitions to enhance market share and scale effects [1] Medical and Sub-health Services - In 2024, revenue from medical beauty and sub-health services reached 928 million and 201 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.1% and 98.9%. The penetration rate of beauty members into medical beauty and sub-health services reached 24.9% [2] - The women's special care center generated over 100 million in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of over 300%, accounting for more than 50% of sub-health medical business revenue, and active membership increased by 200% year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing three strategic initiatives to maximize shareholder value: establishing a long-term shareholder return mechanism, attracting quality long-term institutional investors, and implementing a core management equity incentive plan [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 315 million, 368 million, and 418 million for 2025-2027, maintaining a strong cash position of nearly 1.4 billion by the end of 2024 [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 37.00 HKD for 2025, based on a 25x PE valuation, reflecting its position as a leading brand in beauty and health and its ongoing initiatives to enhance shareholder value [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 37.00 HKD [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's core competitive advantage lies in high-quality membership and comprehensive lifecycle management, with traditional beauty services as the foundation, complemented by medical beauty and sub-health services to extend customer lifecycles and enhance customer stickiness [1]. - The company is actively increasing its dividend payout ratio, optimizing its shareholder structure, and implementing long-term incentive mechanisms, which may improve liquidity and indicate potential for PE valuation recovery [1]. - The company is expected to continue industry consolidation and business acquisitions to enhance market share and strengthen economies of scale [2]. Financial Performance - The beauty and health services revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 1.443 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 20.9%, and the company plans to increase the number of direct and franchise stores [2]. - Medical beauty and sub-health services revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 928 million RMB and 201 million RMB, respectively, with significant growth rates of 9.1% and 98.9% year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 315.33 million RMB, 367.89 million RMB, and 418.15 million RMB, respectively, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][20]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has outlined three strategic initiatives aimed at maximizing shareholder value: establishing a long-term shareholder return mechanism, attracting quality long-term institutional investors, and implementing a core management equity incentive plan [4]. - The company aims to allocate no less than 50% of annual net profit attributable to shareholders for dividends from 2025 to 2027, barring special circumstances [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a PE ratio of 25x for 2025, reflecting the company's position as a leading brand in beauty and health, with a target price of 37.00 HKD based on this valuation [5]. - The company’s cash position is strong, with nearly 1.4 billion RMB at the end of 2024, supporting its stable business development and ongoing market share enhancement [5].