贵金属强势上扬 关注阻力突破

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a strong breakout, with significant price increases in gold and silver, driven by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Market Performance - New York gold futures rose by 2.8% to $4122 per ounce, marking a two-week high; Shanghai gold also increased by 2.23% to 944.76 yuan per gram [1]. - New York silver futures surged by 4.51% to $50.311 per ounce, while Shanghai silver rose by 3.09% to 11868 yuan per kilogram, indicating strong upward momentum [1]. Market Drivers - The U.S. government shutdown discussions have resumed with positive signals from both parties in the Senate, boosting market risk sentiment [1]. - Diverging views among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policies are contributing to market uncertainty, with some advocating for a cautious approach while others support maintaining a dovish stance [1]. - The latest data shows the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped to a two-year low of 50.3, while inflation expectations remain high at 4.7%, reinforcing expectations for continued accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [1]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks are increasing gold purchases, providing solid support for the market; China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months [1]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, a 28% increase compared to the previous quarter [1]. Short-term Outlook - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend driven by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [2]. - Technically, if New York gold stabilizes around the $4100 level, the next resistance may be around $4150; silver could aim for $52 if it holds above the $50 mark [2]. - There remains uncertainty regarding the U.S. government shutdown resolution, which could impact market sentiment [2].