Core Insights - The dollar is regaining its status as one of the most attractive global assets, countering previous "sell America" narratives that raised concerns about the future of this global reserve currency [1] - A simple strategy of borrowing low-yield currencies like the yen or Swiss franc to invest in dollars appears to offer higher potential returns than European equities [1] - Despite a nearly 7% decline in the dollar index this year, it has rebounded about 3% from September's lows, partly due to "arbitrage trading" [1] Group 1: Dollar's Appeal - The attractiveness of dollar arbitrage trading is bolstered by a sharp decline in dollar volatility, partly due to prolonged government shutdowns that have suppressed price fluctuations in the global forex market [2] - Institutions estimate arbitrage returns by comparing borrowing rates of the yen and Swiss franc with dollar investment yields, using earnings yields as a proxy for stock returns [2] Group 2: Market Concerns - As the appeal of arbitrage trading rises, investors are worried that the AI-driven global stock market rally may soon end, with the S&P 500 index having surged over a third since April [3] - The risk premium for U.S. stocks, measured by the difference between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, has turned negative, indicating that U.S. stocks may not provide returns on a risk-adjusted basis [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - For "dollar bulls" looking to increase their dollar arbitrage strategies before 2026, there remains hope [4] - The U.S. inflation rate of 3% in September is significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, posing challenges for officials and influencing future monetary policy decisions [5] - If strong economic data continues, it may support the attractiveness of dollar arbitrage trading, as long as macroeconomic and financial market conditions remain resilient [5]
美元王者归来？一项“躺赢”策略或让其重登全球最强资产宝座！
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-11-11 02:23