Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-11 02:48Group 1: Industry Overview - The aviation sector is identified as a cyclical strengthening variety within the transportation sector, with a shift in macro expectations likely to catalyze market activity [1] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) is implementing policies to curb disorderly competition and guide rational pricing, which, along with optimized flight slot structures, is expected to improve the domestic aviation supply-demand relationship over the next 2-3 years [1] - The supply side is constrained by aging fleets, with over 15% of aircraft being over 15 years old, and a projected annual growth rate of only about 3% for the domestic fleet from 2020 to 2024, significantly lower than the 8% growth during the 13th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 2: Demand Potential - The resilience of aviation demand is highlighted, with passenger transport volume reaching 582 million from January to September 2025, a 17% increase compared to 2019, and a seat occupancy rate of 84.9%, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [2] - Domestic market recovery is steady, with flight and passenger numbers increasing by 13% and 19% respectively compared to 2019, and ticket prices stabilizing with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in October [2] - International routes are also recovering, with passenger transport volume reaching 102% of the 2019 level, driven by the expansion of visa-free policies and improved customs facilitation [2]