普徕仕：料关税带来的美国通胀压力明年减退 关注国际价值股及小型股

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the clarity of U.S. President Trump's trade and fiscal policies is increasing, prompting investors to assess the impact of these policies on inflation, the economy, and monetary policy [1] - The actual tariff rates between the U.S. and its major trading partners are projected to be between 10% and 20%, a significant increase from 2.5% at the beginning of 2025 [1] - Although tariff increases have not yet significantly impacted the U.S. economy, they may dampen consumer spending, economic growth, and corporate profits [1] - Inflationary pressures from tariffs are expected to ease next year, while economic activity remains robust with only slight declines in real-time economic indicators [1] - AI-related spending is strong, offsetting the ongoing weakness in the manufacturing and real estate sectors [1] - Factors such as tariff increases, corporate tax rate cuts, and strict immigration policies are keeping inflation expectations high, raising concerns about rising prices affecting corporate earnings and consumer sentiment [1] - The job market is a point of concern, particularly for small businesses that account for over 70% of U.S. employment but have weaker pricing power and are sensitive to economic and interest rate changes, potentially facing layoffs [1] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are focused on international value stocks and small-cap stocks, especially in regions with increased fiscal spending and accommodative monetary policies [2] - European and UK stock markets appear attractive, while U.S. growth stocks may benefit from the AI boom, providing a buffer if the economy weakens due to their solid fundamentals [2] - Stocks linked to real assets, such as energy and metals, have historically served as effective hedges against inflation [2] - The development of AI and rising electricity demand may stimulate industrial metal demand, with some metals facing supply constraints [2] - The issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds to address deficit spending may put upward pressure on yields [2] - Due to inflation concerns and the level of U.S. public debt, there is a cautious stance on long-duration U.S. Treasuries as a hedge during economic downturns [2] - In fixed income investments, there is a preference for shorter-duration assets and short-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) [2]