豆油远期供需结构有望收紧

Group 1 - Palm oil prices are declining due to unexpected production increases and a cooling demand for biodiesel, impacting the oilseed sector negatively [1] - The easing of China-US trade tensions and improved soybean export expectations are supporting US soybean prices, which in turn raises the cost of imported soybeans in China, providing support for soybean oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - The supply-demand structure for US soybeans is tightening as China reduces tariffs on US agricultural products, with soybean import tariffs dropping from 23% to 13%, and a commitment to purchase 12 million tons of soybeans in the last two months of 2025 [2] - The USDA is expected to adjust its soybean export forecasts upward in the upcoming monthly report, influenced by the easing trade tensions and potential reductions in yield estimates due to drought conditions in key soybean-producing areas [2] Group 3 - Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 11.02% in October to 2.04 million tons, and exports rose by 18.58% to 1.69 million tons, exceeding market expectations [3] - Despite high production and inventory levels, the market is shifting focus to seasonal production declines and improving export demand, indicating that the negative sentiment around palm oil may be waning [3] Group 4 - Indonesia's mining association is requesting the government to cancel the 50% biodiesel blending plan (B50) set for 2026, raising concerns about future palm oil demand [4] - The Indonesian government is working to address challenges related to the B50 plan, which could lead to increased biodiesel blending rates in the second half of next year if resolved [4] Group 5 - Domestic soybean oil supply remains ample, with cumulative soybean imports from January to October reaching 95.68 million tons, a 6.4% increase year-on-year, and high commercial inventories of soybean oil [5] - Weak end-user demand and slow purchasing speeds are contributing to a cautious procurement attitude among traders and oil-using enterprises, leading to a significant increase in soybean oil inventories [5] Group 6 - Although Brazilian soybean prices are weakening, the strength of CBOT soybeans is offsetting this decline, leading to increased import costs for soybeans in China [6] - The focus is shifting towards the rising costs of imported soybeans and the potential for recovery in crushing margins, with a significant amount of soybeans still awaiting purchase for December shipment [6][7] Group 7 - The USDA report is likely to provide bullish narratives for US soybeans by adjusting yield and export estimates upward, while domestic soybean oil costs are supported by rising import costs and seasonal production declines in palm oil [7]