高盛警告：AI狂潮恐重演1999互联网泡沫，五大信号值得警惕！

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs strategists warn that the current AI investment frenzy bears striking similarities to the internet bubble before its collapse in 2000, indicating potential risks in the market [2]. Group 1: Investment Spending - Investment spending in technology equipment and software peaked in 2000, with non-residential investment in telecommunications and technology accounting for about 15% of US GDP [3]. - Goldman Sachs analysts note that in the months leading up to the internet bubble burst, investment spending began to decline, suggesting that high asset valuations significantly impacted real spending decisions [3]. - Major tech companies are expected to invest approximately $349 billion in capital expenditures for AI by 2025 [3]. Group 2: Corporate Profits - Corporate profits peaked around 1997 and began to decline thereafter, with profitability reaching its zenith long before the end of the boom [6]. - Current corporate profit performance appears strong, with the blended net profit margin of the S&P 500 at approximately 13.1%, above the five-year average of 12.1% [6][9]. Group 3: Corporate Debt - Corporate debt as a percentage of profits peaked in 2001, coinciding with the internet bubble's collapse [12]. - The combination of rising investment and declining profitability pushed the financial balance of the corporate sector into deficit [12]. - While some large tech companies are financing AI expenditures through debt, most appear to be using free cash flow for capital expenditures, with current corporate debt levels significantly lower than during the internet bubble peak [12][15]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Actions - In the late 1990s, the Federal Reserve was in a rate-cutting cycle, which contributed to stock market gains [15]. - The Federal Reserve recently cut rates by 25 basis points and is expected to do so again in December [15]. Group 5: Credit Spreads - Credit spreads widened before the internet bubble burst, indicating increased risk perception among investors [18]. - Although credit spreads are currently at historical lows, they have begun to widen recently, with the ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread rising to approximately 3.15% [18].