银行直供房激增，是“捡漏”的机会，还是隐藏的风险？

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of "bank direct supply housing" in China's real estate market is gaining significant attention, with major banks like Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Transportation Bank engaging in direct property sales primarily from non-performing loan disposals [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Direct Sales - Major banks are increasingly adopting a direct sales model for real estate, which is seen as a new method for quickly handling non-performing loans [3][5]. - The scale of direct property sales is experiencing explosive growth, with local banks and rural credit cooperatives notably increasing their listings [3][5]. - For instance, Lanzhou Bank has listed 1,779 properties for direct sale in 2025, a 50% increase from the previous year, while Jilin Bank and Tianjin Bank have listed over 2,000 and 1,200 properties, respectively [3][5]. Group 2: Advantages of Direct Sales - The direct sale model is reported to have a 15%-20% higher recovery rate for non-performing assets compared to traditional debt transfer methods, and the processing time is reduced by over one-third [5]. - Properties sold directly by banks often have significant price advantages, with some listings priced 10%-30% lower than comparable second-hand homes [5][6]. - For example, a property listed by Lanzhou Rural Commercial Bank is priced at 2,300 yuan per square meter, while similar properties in the area are listed between 33,000 and 46,000 yuan per square meter [5]. Group 3: Market Impact - The large-scale direct sales by banks are expected to challenge the current real estate price system, potentially leading to a decrease in property values across the market [11][13]. - The introduction of significantly lower-priced bank listings could further depress the already declining prices of second-hand homes and impact new home pricing strategies [11][13]. - This situation may create a downward spiral in property prices, as buyers may hesitate to purchase due to expectations of further declines, exacerbating the market's challenges [13].