美联储明年或迎反弹，为何降息仍需谨慎？

Economic Outlook - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, anticipates a significant rebound in the U.S. economy by early next year, driven by the end of government shutdowns, fiscal support measures, the effects of previous interest rate cuts, and a relaxed regulatory environment [1] - Musalem emphasizes that the current Federal Reserve policy rate is nearing a level that will not exert further downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for substantial rate cuts [3] Inflation and Consumer Pressure - Musalem highlights increasing pressure on low- and middle-income households due to rising living costs, leading to a greater reliance on food banks and utility assistance programs, which reflects the impact of inflation on real income [4] - He stresses that achieving the inflation target of 2% is essential not only for economic stability but also for restoring the purchasing power of the public [4] Inflation Structure and Employment - Approximately 40% of the current inflation above the 2% target is related to tariffs, while the remaining portion is primarily driven by rising service sector prices [5] - Despite a potential short-term rise in unemployment due to government shutdowns, Musalem expects overall employment levels to remain close to full employment [5] - Concerns are raised regarding asset prices, with Musalem noting that housing and stock prices are elevated compared to historical levels, reflecting a loose financial environment [5] Policy Considerations - Musalem's analysis presents a balanced view of optimism and caution, suggesting that while the economy may experience a short-term recovery, inflationary pressures and financial market risks must be monitored [5] - Policymakers are reminded to remain vigilant in balancing economic growth, price stability, and financial health amidst positive economic recovery and market performance [5]