Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-11 06:08Core Viewpoint - The steel sector has experienced a significant improvement in profitability during the third quarter, with key companies showing notable stock price increases. Group 1: Stock Performance - Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (00323) rose by 5.38%, reaching HKD 2.74 [1] - Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (601005) increased by 2.88%, reaching HKD 1.43 [1] - Ansteel Company Limited (000898) (00347) saw a rise of 1.83%, reaching HKD 2.22 [1] Group 2: Industry Profitability - According to Mysteel, the profitability rate of steel mills increased from 59% at the end of June to 64% by the end of August [1] - In September, steel prices did not rise as much as coking coal prices, leading to a decline in profitability rates, with an average of 62% for the third quarter, up 4.5 percentage points from the second quarter [1] - Longjiang Securities estimates that the net profit per ton for the steel industry in Q3 2025 will be 92 CNY, an increase of 14 CNY per ton compared to the previous quarter, placing it at the 68th percentile since 2021 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Longjiang Securities anticipates that the profit margin for iron ore will be significantly greater than that for coking coal in 2026, with the commencement of the Ximangdu project potentially providing opportunities [1] - The report indicates that the expectation of reduced production among steel companies remains unfulfilled, as high-frequency data shows insufficient willingness to cut production [1] - The industry is expected to see a sustained realization of supply-side contraction logic under differentiated production restrictions and graded management in 2026 [1]