Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has slightly adjusted the profit forecast for Lao Pu Gold (06181) for 2025 by 2-3%, while maintaining the profit expectations for 2026-2027 unchanged. The target price is set at HKD 1296, with a reiterated "outperform" rating, positioning the stock as one of the top picks in the domestic consumption sector [1]. Group 1: Financial Projections - The profit forecast for Lao Pu Gold for 2025 has been adjusted downwards by 2-3% [1]. - The profit expectations for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged [1]. - The target price set by Morgan Stanley is HKD 1296 [1]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to maintain growth momentum due to brand value, product innovation, and a strong value proposition in a market that emphasizes national pride [1]. - The management is optimistic about the outlook before 2026, supported by a solid growth foundation, including average selling price increases and new store expansions [1]. Group 3: Impact of New Tax Policy - The new value-added tax (VAT) policy on gold jewelry, effective from November 1, will increase raw material costs by approximately 6% [1]. - This VAT policy is expected to exert a pressure of 3-4 percentage points on the company's gross margin [1]. - Management believes that the actual impact on gross margin may be limited due to inventory reserves and price adjustment mechanisms [1].
小摩：老铺黄金(06181)指新黄金首饰增值税影响或有限 重申“跑赢大市”评级