现货黄金破4100美元/盎司，首饰金克价也突破1300元！上海金ETF(518600)连续4日上涨，或可借道上海金ETF对冲金饰价格上涨

Core Insights - Spot gold has reached $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 27, driven by expectations of a potential U.S. government restart and improving economic data, which may increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 11, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has risen by 1.78%, with an early session increase of over 2%, marking four consecutive days of gains [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a net asset value increase of 51.25% as of November 10, 2025 [1] - The highest monthly return since inception for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 11.46%, with the longest streak of monthly gains being six months and the maximum gain during that period being 8.23% [1] Group 2: Fund Inflows and Pricing - Over the past 21 trading days, the Shanghai Gold ETF has attracted a total of 819 million yuan in inflows [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have significantly increased, with several brands reporting higher prices for pure gold jewelry, such as Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook at 1,308 yuan per gram [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - J.P. Morgan Private Bank forecasts that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year, driven by central bank purchases from emerging market economies [2] - By the end of 2026, gold prices may reach between $5,200 and $5,300 per ounce, representing an increase of over 25% from current levels [2] - CICC anticipates that gold will continue its upward trend next year, supported by the ongoing trend of de-globalization and strategic security concerns, as well as potential economic pressures in the U.S. [3]