房价下跌成真？一线2万、二线8000、三四线4000，可能实现吗？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market in China is experiencing an unprecedented downturn, with significant declines in both new and second-hand housing prices across major cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In November 2022, 51 out of 70 major cities saw a month-on-month decline in new residential property prices, accounting for over 70% [3]. - The second-hand housing market is even more severely affected, with 62 cities experiencing price drops, nearing 90% [3]. - From January to November 2022, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 67,268.1 billion yuan, representing a substantial year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [5]. Group 2: Causes of the Downturn - The profit-making effect of the real estate market has diminished, leading to a withdrawal of speculative investments as prices decline [7]. - The repeated impacts of the pandemic and a sluggish real economy have further weakened the market, with layoffs and reduced income expectations causing potential buyers to hold back [7]. - A circulating "price drop timetable" suggests that housing prices in first-tier cities could fall to 20,000 yuan per square meter, second-tier cities to 8,000 yuan, and third/fourth-tier cities to 4,000 yuan, which raises skepticism given the current price levels [7]. Group 3: Implications of Price Declines - A significant drop in housing prices could devastate household wealth, prompting government intervention to stabilize the market and prevent social unrest [8]. - A rapid decline in prices may lead to systemic financial risks, including a surge in abandoned properties and potential liquidity crises for banks [8]. - The downturn in the real estate market could have far-reaching effects on the national economy, impacting related industries and local government revenues [8].