淡季不淡！碳酸锂期货暴涨20％，枧下窝矿复产成情绪变量｜大宗风云

Core Insights - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged due to a rebound in downstream demand, with the main contract closing at 87,260 yuan/ton, marking a 7.36% increase and a two-and-a-half-month high [2] - From October 14 to November 10, lithium carbonate futures prices rose by 20%, driven by strong production activity in the lithium iron phosphate industry [2] - The recent price increase is attributed to improved consumption fundamentals and speculation regarding the cost increase and delayed resumption of the Jiangxia Wokeng mine [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures price increase has led to a corresponding rise in spot prices, indicating a strong correlation between the two markets [3] - The trading activity in the spot market has significantly increased, with high transaction volumes supporting the overall market supply-demand relationship [3] - Lithium concentrate imports have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with expectations of increased arrivals in mid-November [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Domestic lithium carbonate production has remained stable despite the shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mine, with October production reaching 92,260 tons, a 6% month-on-month increase and a 55% year-on-year increase [5] - The overall operating rate for lithium carbonate production in October was 56%, with lithium spodumene operating at 67% and mica at 32% [5] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains robust, particularly from the electric cell sector and the growing sales of new energy vehicles, which have provided strong support for market demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing price increase may continue if the Jiangxia Wokeng mine does not resume operations by the end of the month, potentially leading to a supply shortage [6][7] - The sustainability of the current demand growth is crucial for the continuation of the price rally, with attention needed on inventory levels and production plans of downstream enterprises [7] - Long-term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to stabilize around 60,000 yuan/ton due to supply disruptions and unexpected consumption growth [8]