Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-11-11 07:20Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report predicts that China Resources Beer (00291) will achieve low single-digit sales growth and double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth by Q3 2025, outperforming Qingdao Beer (600600) and Budweiser APAC (01876) [1] Company Summary - The beer industry is currently experiencing a polarization trend, characterized by both premiumization and downgrading [1] - Despite ongoing pressure in the liquor business, there has been improvement compared to the summer, which may lead to goodwill impairment, but this will not affect dividends [1] - The dividend payout ratio for China Resources Beer is expected to increase from 52% in 2024 to 60% in 2025, and further rise to 70-80% by 2027-2028 [1] - Following changes in the management team, the company's business remains resilient and its development pace is steady [1] - The management has reiterated its targets for 2025, expecting adjusted profit (excluding special income related to the relocation agreement with joint ventures in the first half of 2025) to grow by low single-digit to double-digit year-on-year, with sales growth projected at low single-digit [1]