美联储“印钞机”待命，两位数通胀恐卷土重来？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut during the October FOMC meeting, bringing the total rate cut since June of last year to 150 basis points, indicating that more cuts are likely to come [1] - Powell hinted at the end of quantitative tightening (QT) during a meeting in Philadelphia, confirming that the Fed will officially end its balance sheet reduction on December 1 [1] - The historical context shows that since the establishment of the Fed in 1913, the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power, with $100 in 1913 now equivalent to $3.20 [1] Group 2 - The primary reason for the dollar's depreciation has been the severing of its link to gold, with the introduction of quantitative easing (QE) in the 21st century, which involves the Fed creating money to purchase government bonds, thus eroding the value of existing dollars [4] - Following the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed expanded its balance sheet from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion through multiple rounds of QE, creating approximately $3.6 trillion, resulting in a 20% decrease in dollar purchasing power by the end of the QE period [4] - During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed created $3.3 trillion in 2020 alone, which accounted for about 20% of the total circulating dollars at that time, leading to a significant increase in the balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to $8.9 trillion by April 2022, causing a 25% decline in dollar purchasing power from 2020 to 2025 [4] Group 3 - The Fed is expected to restart QE to lower long-term interest rates, likely starting early next year, with a balance sheet already inflated to approximately $6.6 trillion, which could lead to double-digit inflation [5] - The upcoming monetary policy could result in unprecedented large-scale and rapid currency devaluation in the U.S. economy [5]