强一股份IPO：高增长神话下的单一客户隐忧

Core Insights - Strong Semiconductor (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. has shown impressive financial growth with a net profit increase of 237.56% and a gross margin of 68.99% in the first half of 2025, but this growth is heavily reliant on a single client, Company B, which accounts for 82.83% of its sales [1][2] - The company is preparing for its IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, having achieved a revenue increase from 254 million to 641 million yuan and a net profit surge from 15.62 million to 233 million yuan from 2022 to 2024 [1][2] Client Concentration Risk - The revenue share from Company B has increased from 50.29% in 2022 to 82.83% in the first half of 2025, indicating a high dependency on a single client, which poses significant risk to revenue stability [2] - Company B is not only a major customer but also an affiliate, with related party transactions exceeding 40% since 2022, raising concerns about the sustainability of revenue if Company B reduces its purchases due to strategic changes [2] Financial Structure Risks - The gross margin has risen sharply from 40.78% in 2022 to 68.99% in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than competitors, raising questions about the fairness of pricing in related transactions [2] - The company faces challenges with cash flow, as operating cash flow has fluctuated dramatically, with accounts receivable reaching 262 million yuan, accounting for 69.87% of revenue in the first half of 2025, indicating high bad debt risk [3] Inventory Concerns - Inventory levels have surged from 41.52 million yuan in 2022 to 112 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in inventory impairment provisions, which could lead to profit erosion if market demand falls short [3] Technological and R&D Challenges - The company lags behind competitors in advanced technology areas like 3D MEMS probe cards, with no significant progress since 2022, while competitors have successfully commercialized similar products [4] - R&D expenditures decreased by 15.5% in 2024, raising concerns about the company's ability to keep pace with rapid technological advancements in the industry [4] Expansion Plans and Capacity Issues - The company plans to raise 1.5 billion yuan for expansion, including increasing production capacity for various probe cards, despite current production rates being below 85% for the past three years [5] - The aggressive expansion plan may lead to overcapacity and financial losses if it does not align with actual market demand, as evidenced by a 73% drop in sales of thin-film probe cards in the first half of 2025 [5] Governance Risks - The company has deep ties with its controlling shareholder, which raises concerns about governance and market competitiveness, especially given past issues with shareholding arrangements [6] - The reliance on a single major client and complex related party transactions could undermine the company's independence and sustainability in the long term [6]