类比2020-2021，A股处于什么位置？

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market shows significant similarities to the 2020-2021 market trends, reflected in macro policy orientation, industrial rotation patterns, and capital allocation behaviors. The market is believed to be in the early stages of a new bull market driven by policy and industrial trends [1][6]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment Similarities - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 is characterized by a policy-driven moderate recovery, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5%, similar to the V-shaped recovery seen in 2021 [7][8]. - Domestic monetary and fiscal policies are consistent with those in early 2020, exhibiting a loose stance that supports market growth [8][9]. Group 2: Industrial Development Similarities - The industrial trends in 2025 reflect breakthroughs in sectors such as AI computing power, robotics, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, paralleling the trends seen in 2021 [2][10]. - The new energy sector is experiencing high growth driven by dual carbon goals and anti-involution policies, with significant revenue increases in solar and energy storage sectors [11][12]. Group 3: Market Activity Similarities - Market activity has significantly increased, with daily trading volumes in 2025 averaging approximately 1.68 trillion yuan, surpassing levels seen in 2021 [18]. - The balance of margin financing has also reached historical highs, indicating a positive market sentiment and increased investor participation [18]. Group 4: Current Market Position - The current market is in the early stages of a slow bull market, akin to the period from August to October 2020, with strategic funds guiding market entry [5][35]. - The market is expected to evolve towards a structural "innovation bull" phase by 2026, as external capital flows and domestic institutional performance improve [35][36].