数据洪峰将至！美联储中间派转鹰，12月降息必要性存疑

Core Viewpoint - The potential end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history may lead to the release of delayed economic data, but Federal Reserve officials are increasingly skeptical that this data will show the necessary weakness for another rate cut this year [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials believe the labor market remains resilient, financial conditions are still accommodative, and inflation is trending in an unfavorable direction [1] - The likelihood of a third rate cut this year is rapidly diminishing unless the upcoming data shows significant surprises [1] - The futures market still prices in about a two-thirds chance of a rate cut in December, which may be overly optimistic [1] Group 2: FOMC Dynamics - Two moderate members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appear inclined to pause rate cuts until at least January [2] - Upcoming personnel changes in the FOMC may not lean entirely dovish, as hawkish members will join the committee [2] - Evidence suggests that moderate members who previously supported rate cuts may shift to support a pause if there is no clear evidence of labor market deterioration [2] Group 3: Labor Market Analysis - Four key reasons support the case for pausing rate cuts in December: high inflation, the need for slightly restrictive policy, resilient labor market conditions, and the time gained from previous rate cuts [3] - There is a consensus among Fed analysts regarding the current inflation and financial conditions, but the labor market remains the biggest uncertainty [3] Group 4: Employment Data Insights - Despite a surge in layoffs reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, private sector job growth remains strong, indicating a stable labor market [6] - Weekly unemployment claims data shows only a slight increase, suggesting stability in the labor market despite recent layoffs and the government shutdown [7] - High-frequency employment data from Homebase indicates that net job creation is hovering near zero, reflecting a potential slowdown in employment growth [9][10]