黄金的“双支柱”时代：降息潮中的避险逻辑与配置策略

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tech stocks has led to a renewed interest in gold as a stable investment, with gold prices fluctuating around 4000 CNY per gram since late October, while tech giants reported disappointing earnings [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Demand and Market Dynamics - Global gold demand is projected to reach a record high of 1313 tons by Q3 2025, driven by both central bank purchases and increased retail investment [2]. - The appeal of gold is shifting from a traditional safe-haven asset to a structural asset allocation tool, benefiting from its low correlation with equity assets [2][6]. - Historical data shows that gold prices have significantly appreciated during previous Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycles, with increases of 31.9%, 49.4%, 31.4%, and a record 53.8% during the current cycle [2]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The gold market is currently experiencing a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with short-term pressures from improving international trade relations reducing gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% has lowered the holding costs for gold, providing a fundamental support for its price [6]. - Despite the rate cut, uncertainty remains regarding future Fed policies, with the probability of another rate cut in December dropping to 72.8% [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The recent pullback in gold prices presents a potential buying opportunity for investors, who may consider dollar-cost averaging during price fluctuations [7]. - Long-term trends indicate that the current rate-cutting cycle and global central bank gold purchases may sustain upward price momentum for gold assets [7]. - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios by including gold ETFs alongside equity investments to hedge against market uncertainties [7].