高盛：对人形机器人技术的长期趋势仍持积极看法

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs recently released a field research report on the supply chain of humanoid robots in China, indicating that most companies plan to gradually scale up after receiving actual orders, suggesting that current plans may not imply an imminent risk of oversupply [1] - The report highlights a positive long-term outlook for humanoid robot technology, but emphasizes the need to monitor the performance of key robotic products and specific end applications to assess whether a technological inflection point is approaching [1] Summary by Sections Company Insights - The report surveyed nine companies in the Chinese robotics industry chain, including Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Top Group, and Shuanghuan Transmission, none of which confirmed receiving significant large orders or provided clear mass production timelines [1] - These companies are actively planning production capacity both domestically and overseas, with annual capacity plans ranging from approximately 100,000 to 1 million units of robots [1] Industry Trends - Goldman Sachs forecasts a global shipment of 1.38 million robots by 2035, contrasting with the optimistic capacity planning of supply chain companies, which raises concerns about potential "oversupply" in the market [1] - An industry analyst cautioned against prematurely concluding "oversupply," noting that the specific application scenarios and technological paths for humanoid robots are still in exploratory development [2] - The current "order vacuum" should be understood as a natural phase in the early development of the industry, where trial and error costs and time are expected [2] - The analyst believes that proactive capacity planning by supply chain companies is a necessary preparation for potential demand surges, and that the future demand volume and technological evolution remain highly variable [2]