每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-11-11）

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - JPMorgan Private Bank predicts gold prices could reach $5200-$5300 by the end of 2026, driven by continued purchases from central banks in emerging markets, representing an increase of over 25% from current levels [1] - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, reaching a historical high of over $4380 in October, primarily due to central banks seeking value storage and asset diversification [1] - Singapore's OCBC Bank suggests that the end of the U.S. government shutdown could benefit gold, as delayed economic data may indicate a slowing economy, potentially leading to a more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed [5] Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown and Economic Impact - TD Securities anticipates the U.S. House will vote on a temporary funding bill, likely leading to the government reopening by Friday, which could result in a quick economic rebound post-shutdown [2] - Standard Chartered notes that the end of the government shutdown may challenge the recent strength of the U.S. dollar, as weak economic data could highlight negative impacts on the economy [3] - UBS forecasts that the Fed's potential rate cuts could lead to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.50% [7] Group 3: Currency and Economic Forecasts - Rabobank's Jane Foley indicates that if delayed U.S. economic data is positive, the dollar may strengthen, improving perceptions of the U.S. economy [4] - Standard Chartered's Steve Englander reports that the dollar is returning to its historical normal relationship after a year of deviation, suggesting a positive outlook for the currency [3] Group 4: Chinese Economic Outlook - CITIC Securities projects China's GDP growth to be around 5.0% in 2025 and 4.9% in 2026, with fiscal spending expected to moderately expand [7] - The firm emphasizes a significant trend of household savings being converted into investments, indicating a potential increase in equity asset allocation [6] Group 5: Automotive Industry Trends - CITIC Jiantou outlines investment strategies for the automotive sector in 2026, focusing on cyclical growth, technological advancements in autonomous driving, and robotics [8] - The report suggests that the automotive industry will see a shift towards overseas expansion and growth, with commercial vehicles showing stable dividend attributes [8]