Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 22.221 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.29% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.393 billion yuan, down 21.02% year-on-year, with a basic EPS of 0.5255 yuan per share, a decline of 20.34% [1] - The average ROE was 5.88%, a decrease of 1.76 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily due to the exclusion of thermal power revenue, which accounted for 5.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing 15.4% of total revenue [1] - The decrease in wind power prices due to increased parity wind projects and expanded market trading also contributed to the revenue drop [1] - The average utilization hours for wind power decreased by 95 hours to 1511 hours compared to the same period last year [1] Cash Flow and Subsidies - The significant increase in renewable energy subsidies received in the first three quarters led to a 53.33% year-on-year growth in operating cash flow, providing strong cash flow support for the main business [1] New Energy Capacity and Generation - The company added 2.2742 million kilowatts of new energy capacity in the first three quarters, with wind and solar power contributing 1.1347 million and 1.1695 million kilowatts, respectively [2] - Total electricity generation was 56.547 billion kilowatt-hours, a slight decrease of 0.53% year-on-year, but a 13.81% increase when excluding thermal power [2] - Wind power generation reached 46.188 billion kilowatt-hours, up 5.3% year-on-year, while solar power generation surged by 78.0% to 10.354 billion kilowatt-hours [2] Quarterly Performance - In Q3, the company generated 16.894 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 0.77% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.8% [2] - Wind power generation in Q3 was 12.685 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.33% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.3% [2] - Solar power generation in Q3 saw a remarkable year-on-year increase of 88.57% to 4.208 billion kilowatt-hours, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.6% [2] Investment Outlook - Despite short-term impacts from the divestment of thermal power, the core business in new energy is showing strong growth [3] - Continued progress in installed capacity and expectations of resource injection from the group are expected to drive long-term development [3] - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 35.511 billion, 36.77 billion, and 38.722 billion yuan, with net profits of 6.329 billion, 6.853 billion, and 7.461 billion yuan, respectively [3]
龙源电力(001289)季报点评:补贴回款充沛现金流 装机增长平滑业绩波动