再现0利率，银行上演抢票大战，票据利率大跳水

Core Viewpoint - The recent "ticket grabbing war" among banks in the fourth quarter has led to a significant drop in bill rates, with the 3-month national bank bill rate falling to 0.01% at the end of October, reflecting strong demand from institutions during critical periods [3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "zero interest rate" bills typically occurs at month-end or quarter-end due to banks' need to meet credit scale assessments, leading to a temporary surge in demand that exceeds supply [3][6]. - As of November 11, the bill market continues to show a buyer-dominated pattern with rates declining by 2-10 basis points, indicating strong demand for bills maturing in 4-5 months [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Trends - Since 2021, bill rates have consistently shown a similar downward trend in the fourth quarter, with zero rates appearing earlier each year; in 2023, this occurred in early November [6][8]. - The historical data indicates that the zero interest rate phenomenon has been occurring increasingly earlier, with 2021 and 2022 seeing zero rates in late December, while 2023 saw it in early November [6]. Group 3: Implications for Credit and Investment - The drop in bill rates to near zero reflects a broader "asset shortage" where banks are increasingly pursuing low-risk credit assets, despite low returns on investment [6][8]. - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in bill rates signals potential credit pressure for banks, despite supportive policies for medium to long-term loans [7][8].