特朗普冲击彻底退潮？美元波动突然降温，美国牛市即将回归？

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market has stabilized significantly after a tumultuous period earlier in the year, with the dollar index recovering close to pre-election levels, indicating a return to normalcy in currency valuation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In April, the foreign exchange market experienced unprecedented volatility due to Trump's announcement of increased tariffs, leading to a record daily trading volume of nearly $10 trillion [3]. - The dollar index faced its worst annual start since the 1970s, driven by concerns over trade policies and the independence of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. - The subsequent recovery of the dollar began in the summer, attributed to several stabilizing factors [5]. Group 2: Supporting Factors - Three main supportive factors for the dollar's rebound include: 1. A de-escalation in trade tensions, with agreements reached between the U.S. and major trading partners like the EU and China [5]. 2. The resilience of the U.S. economy, which has performed better than many institutions expected in the face of tariff impacts [5]. 3. The nearing end of the global central bank rate-cutting cycle, which has reduced uncertainty in the currency markets [5][9]. Group 3: Unexpected Boosts - Two unexpected factors that contributed to the dollar's stability include: 1. The prolonged U.S. government shutdown, which delayed the release of key economic data, thereby reducing volatility in the dollar and U.S. bond markets [7]. 2. The Federal Reserve's recent meeting, which, while resulting in a rate cut, signaled that future cuts are not guaranteed, providing a boost to the dollar [7][9]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Institutional investors remain optimistic about the dollar's long-term trend, viewing the earlier declines as a minor correction rather than the end of a strong cycle [11][12]. - The underlying logic for the dollar's strength remains intact, supported by the relative resilience of the U.S. economy, global interest rate differentials, and its dominant role in global trade and as a reserve currency [14]. - The market has learned to rationally assess policy news, moving away from emotional trading, which has allowed the dollar to return to a more stable valuation based on fundamental factors [14][16].