国内油价微涨，国际原油整体需求疲软｜油市跌宕

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have increased after two consecutive decreases, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 125 yuan and 120 yuan per ton respectively, effective from November 10 [2][3]. Price Adjustment Details - The National Development and Reform Commission announced the price increase based on the average price of crude oil over the previous ten working days, which was 62.44 USD per barrel, reflecting a change rate of 2.74% [3]. - This marks the 22nd price adjustment in 2025, with a total of seven increases, nine decreases, and six instances of no change throughout the year [3][4]. - Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel prices have decreased by 620 yuan per ton and 595 yuan per ton respectively [4]. Impact on Consumers - Following the price adjustment, retail prices for diesel range from 6.6 to 6.8 yuan per liter, while 92-octane gasoline is priced between 6.9 and 7.0 yuan per liter [4]. - For private car owners, filling a 50L tank will cost an additional 5 yuan, leading to an estimated increase of 7 yuan in fuel costs for a vehicle running 2,000 kilometers per month [4]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month will see an increase of approximately 177 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [4]. International Oil Market Trends - International crude oil prices have shown a weak and fluctuating trend, with OPEC+ members deciding to increase production targets, raising concerns about oversupply [5][6]. - The U.S. government shutdown and rising crude oil inventories have further pressured oil prices downward [5][6]. - Analysts predict that global oil inventories will continue to rise, exerting downward pressure on prices, with Brent crude expected to average 62 USD per barrel in Q4 2025 and drop to 52 USD in 2026 [6]. Future Price Expectations - The next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is anticipated to be downward due to a pessimistic outlook on international oil prices and ongoing oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [7]. - Analysts suggest that the seasonal decrease in U.S. refinery demand and the increase in crude oil inventories will contribute to this expected price reduction [7][8]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while diesel demand remains stable, gasoline lacks strong support, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations in gasoline prices [8].