2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-11-11 13:37Core Insights - The article discusses the potential turning point in the refining industry as it experiences improved profitability and the impact of "anti-involution" policies on the sector [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Four major private refining companies in A-shares—Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Hengyi Petrochemical—saw stock price increases of 7.26%, 11.92%, 9.40%, and 8.06% respectively as of November 11 [1]. - Rongsheng Petrochemical reported a net profit of 286 million yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of 1427%, while Hengli Petrochemical achieved a net profit of 1.972 billion yuan, with an 81% growth rate, making it the top performer among the four [1][3]. - Hengyi Petrochemical turned a profit in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 204 million yuan, while Dongfang Shenghong's net profit improved significantly, reducing its loss by nearly 1.5 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The refining industry had been stagnant for several years due to global economic downturns affecting oil prices and resulting in low processing fees, limiting profit margins [2][4]. - The introduction of energy consumption limits in Q3 has accelerated the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rapid improvement in refining companies' profits [2][5]. - The improvement in profitability is attributed to stabilized crude oil prices, improved refining margins for PX and finished oil, and enhanced collaboration with strategic investors like Saudi Aramco [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Impact - A series of policies aimed at curbing low-price competition have been implemented, including mandatory energy consumption limits for refining products, which are expected to phase out inefficient capacities [5][6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan for 2025-2026 emphasizes controlling new refining capacities and improving the entry threshold for leading refining companies [6][7]. Group 4: Demand Outlook - Despite global demand pressures, China's chemical product demand remains resilient, with growth rates of 5%-10% or higher, driven by emerging applications in new energy and electronics [7]. - The expectation of a recovery in industrial product demand in the next 2-3 years, alongside stabilization in domestic demand, suggests a gradual improvement in chemical product demand [7].