英国失业率意外上升，市场押注英央行12月降息，政府秋季预算承压

Core Insights - The UK labor market shows unexpected weakness, with the unemployment rate rising to 5%, higher than market expectations, and a decrease of 32,000 salaried employees [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England in December have surged to 75% following the labor market data release [3] - The upcoming autumn budget faces increased pressure due to the deteriorating labor market conditions, prompting potential tax increases and interest rate cuts [4][5] Labor Market Conditions - The unemployment rate has risen to 5%, exceeding previous forecasts, indicating a loosening labor market [2] - The number of salaried employees decreased by 32,000 from August to September, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [2] Market Reactions - Following the labor market data, the yield on 10-year UK government bonds fell by over 5 basis points to 4.405% [1] - The British pound depreciated by 0.3% against the US dollar in response to the labor market news [1] Economic Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that the weak labor market may force the government to implement tax increases during a period of economic downturn, which contradicts conventional economic theory [5] - The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, is expected to announce the autumn budget on November 26, with speculation that she may break her campaign promise not to raise taxes on workers [4][5] Inflation and Interest Rates - The UK inflation rate for October was reported at 3.8%, lower than expected but still above the Bank of England's target of 2% [3] - The data reinforces the rationale for a potential interest rate cut during the Bank of England's December meeting [3]