布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：穆萨勒姆预测美国经济明年初强劲回升

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, predicts a significant rebound in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of next year, driven by several positive factors including the end of government shutdowns, gradual implementation of fiscal support measures, the effects of previous interest rate cuts, and a moderately relaxed regulatory environment [1] Economic Outlook - Musalem emphasizes that the anticipated economic activity boost is expected to accelerate growth [1] - He notes that the current monetary policy is nearing a level where it no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking economic imbalance [3] Inflation Concerns - Musalem reaffirms a strong commitment to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target, highlighting that approximately 40% of current inflation is driven by tariff factors [4] - He points out persistent challenges from rising service prices and increasing financial pressure on middle- and low-income households, evidenced by a rise in reliance on food assistance and utility bill aid [4] Employment Market - Despite a slowdown in labor conditions and a potential temporary rise in unemployment due to government shutdowns, Musalem expects overall employment to remain stable near "full employment" levels [5] - Concerns are raised regarding high asset valuations, with reference to the Federal Reserve's recent Financial Stability Report indicating that U.S. housing prices and financial markets remain elevated compared to historical standards [5] Policy Balance - Musalem's statements highlight the challenge faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing economic growth support with inflation control, suggesting that policymakers will need to carefully assess data to ensure decisions promote recovery while maintaining price stability [6]