上海楼市，还会救市吗？

Core Insights - The "825 New Policy" implemented in Shanghai aims to stimulate the real estate market by reducing purchase costs for first-time and upgrading buyers, but its effects have not been sustained [2][10]. Market Performance - In the first month after the policy, new home transactions in the outer ring area accounted for 73.45% of total sales, reaching a year-to-date high [1]. - However, by October, the new home market saw a month-on-month decline in transaction area of 22.7%, indicating a high-level retreat [1]. Market Segmentation - The high-end property segment has shown remarkable performance, with Shanghai Yihua Garden leading sales at 21.78 billion yuan, followed by Jinling Huating and Feiyun Yuefu [3]. - Transaction volumes in the inner and outer rings increased year-on-year by 24% and 18%, respectively, with transaction values rising by 22% and 27% [3]. Peripheral Market Challenges - In contrast, the peripheral areas are under significant pressure, with the de-stocking cycle extending to 36 months in the outer ring [5]. - High inventory levels in the outer ring indicate substantial de-stocking challenges [5]. Secondary Market Trends - The secondary housing market is a crucial indicator of the real estate landscape, with 195,000 units sold from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, while average prices fell to 48,800 yuan per square meter, down 8.6% year-on-year [7]. - The trend of "trading price for volume" is prevalent, with nearly 80% of transactions occurring at prices more than 5% below the listing price [9]. - In October, 18,483 secondary homes were sold, a month-on-month decrease of 9.35%, but daily transactions showed resilience, averaging 754 units, up nearly 10% from September [9]. Future Policy Outlook - There is potential for further policy optimization in Shanghai, with discussions around possibly lifting purchase restrictions in major cities [10]. - The current real estate policies are at their most lenient historically, and future policies may focus on long-term mechanisms for sustainable development [10]. - Recent signals from the land market indicate continued confidence in core areas, as evidenced by record land prices in recent auctions [10].