国际货币体系变化的先兆？

Core Insights - The article discusses the changing dynamics between gold reserves and U.S. Treasury securities in global international reserves, highlighting a significant shift expected in late 2025 where gold reserves will surpass U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996 [2][3]. Group 1: Trends in Gold and U.S. Treasury Securities - Gold reserves have seen an increase from approximately 10% in 2008 and 2016 to over 25% in mid-2025, while U.S. Treasury securities have decreased from about one-third in 2016 to below 25% in mid-2025 [2][3]. - The price of gold rose from around $1,200-$1,300 per ounce in 2016 to approximately $3,300 per ounce by mid-2025, contributing to the increase in gold reserves' value [3]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury securities increased from an average of about 1.85% in 2016 to around 4.2%-4.3% in mid-2025, leading to a decline in the market price of existing U.S. Treasury securities [3]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - The period of rising U.S. Treasury securities from 1980 to 2016 coincided with a phase of strong global economic and financial globalization, while the decline since 2016 aligns with a period of challenges to globalization [4]. - Key events in 2016, such as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump, marked a significant turning point in global economic dynamics [4]. Group 3: Impact of U.S. Policies - The Trump administration's trade policies and reluctance to provide global public goods have undermined confidence in the current international monetary system, affecting the perception of U.S. Treasury securities as a safe asset [5]. - The freezing of Russian foreign assets by the U.S. government during the Ukraine conflict raised concerns about the reliability of U.S. Treasury securities, leading to discussions about potential forced conversions of U.S. debt held by foreign nations [5][6]. Group 4: Future of the International Monetary System - Despite a projected decline in the dollar's international status, it will remain the most important reserve currency, while other currencies like the euro, yuan, yen, and pound will gain significance [7]. - The future international monetary system may evolve into a hybrid model incorporating elements of the "global financial stability trilemma" and the proposed "Bretton Woods 3.0" framework [7].