参院押注临时拨款稳场面，戴利警告滞胀重演，黄金破4130美元，人民币走强还能多久？

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is advancing a temporary funding bill, indicating a potential end to the prolonged government shutdown, which has lasted for 35 days and caused an estimated loss of $7 billion [3][6] - The temporary funding bill aims to provide funding until January 31, 2024, and includes key projects like food stamps and veterans' affairs [3][6] - The market is reacting positively to the potential passage of the funding bill, which is expected to stabilize basic services and provide a more predictable environment for businesses and consumers [3][6] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some members advocating for continued cuts due to low inflation and stable employment, while others express caution [6][8] - Concerns are raised about the U.S. economy potentially facing a stagflation scenario reminiscent of the 1970s, with rising inflation expectations and slowing growth [6][8] - Recent economic data, such as the October ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.7 and a modest increase of only 42,000 jobs in the private sector, indicate a weakening economic landscape [6][8] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4,130 per ounce, reflecting a flight to safety and concerns over long-term monetary credibility [8][11] - Central banks globally, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's reserves reaching 74.09 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 12 months [8][11] - The market is advised to manage gold investments carefully, as while the long-term outlook is bullish, volatility may increase [11][15] Group 4 - The relationship between high interest rates, inflation expectations, and fiscal policy is critical for assessing the attractiveness of U.S. dollar assets [15][16] - The upcoming Senate vote, data releases, and the Federal Reserve's December meeting are pivotal events that will clarify the market's direction regarding gold, the strength of the yuan, and the pricing of dollar assets [16]