数据显示美国劳动力市场放缓 美债期货应声上涨

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, as indicated by the recent ADP Research data, which has led to a rise in U.S. Treasury futures and a decline in the dollar [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the ADP data release, 10-year U.S. Treasury futures increased, resulting in a drop of approximately 4 basis points in the 10-year Treasury yield, which closed at 4.12% on Monday [1] - The currency market adjusted its expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with swap contracts linked to Fed meetings indicating a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut next month [1] - The anticipation of a rate cut has caused the Bloomberg Dollar Index to fall significantly, reaching its lowest point of the month, while both the euro and yen appreciated against the dollar [1] Group 2: Economic Commentary - T. Rowe Price's Chief U.S. Economist, Blerina Uruci, noted that the recent data contradicts the view that the labor market has stabilized, emphasizing the need for close monitoring due to potential disruptions in October data, including impacts from a government shutdown [1]