Disney's blackout with YouTube TV sparks punishing $30M in weekly losses for Mouse House: analysts

Core Viewpoint - Walt Disney Co. is experiencing significant revenue loss, approximately $30 million per week, due to its ongoing dispute with YouTube TV, which has resulted in the blackout of ESPN, ABC, and other Disney-owned channels for about 10 million subscribers since October 30 [1][5][10]. Group 1: Financial Impact - Morgan Stanley analyst Ben Swinburne estimates that if the blackout continues for two weeks, Disney's revenue could decrease by $60 million, equating to about $4.3 million per day [5][6]. - Swinburne has revised Disney's quarterly net income estimate down by $25 million to $1.52 billion, indicating a potential earnings impact of about 2 cents per share [6]. - The blackout threatens Disney's viewership and affiliate payments linked to live sports broadcasts, highlighting the company's reliance on ESPN's carriage fees and advertising revenue [6]. Group 2: Subscriber and Market Reaction - YouTube TV is attempting to mitigate subscriber dissatisfaction by offering a $20 credit to affected customers, which could cost Google nearly $200 million if all subscribers redeem it [7]. - The ongoing dispute has led to millions of viewers missing key sports events, including significant NFL games [13]. - Disney executives have indicated that negotiations have stalled, with Disney accusing YouTube TV of seeking "below market" terms, while YouTube claims Disney is demanding higher fees than those charged to competitors [10][11]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Analysts suggest that Disney could potentially attract subscribers who leave YouTube TV to its own live-TV services, such as Hulu + Live TV, Fubo, and the ESPN app [12]. - Disney is scheduled to report its quarterly earnings soon, where executives are expected to address the financial impact of the blackout and the potential return of ESPN and ABC to YouTube TV [14].