Disney Q4 Preview: Will Investors Overlook YouTube Dispute, Box Office Setbacks For Future Guidance & Growth?

Core Viewpoint - The Walt Disney Company is expected to face scrutiny over various challenges, including the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel, tough box office comparisons, and a carriage dispute with YouTube, when it reports its fourth-quarter financial results [1]. Earnings Estimates - Analysts predict Disney will report fourth-quarter revenue of $22.75 billion, an increase from $22.57 billion in the same quarter last year [2]. - Expected earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter is $1.05, down from $1.14 in the previous year [2]. - Disney has surpassed analyst revenue estimates in five of the last ten quarters and has beaten EPS estimates for nine consecutive quarters [2]. Expert Insights - Streaming is anticipated to be a significant topic in the fourth-quarter results, with a focus on the new ESPN streaming platform and price increases for Disney+ [3][4]. - The new ESPN platform is expected to reach around 500,000 subscribers in its first quarter and two million by the end of fiscal 2026, potentially generating nearly $500 million in new revenue [5]. - For Disney+, an addition of approximately 500,000 net new domestic subscribers is expected in the fourth quarter, with a projected 15% increase in average revenue per user due to price hikes [6]. Key Items to Watch - The report comes at a crucial time for Disney, with recent developments including a partnership with FuboTV, the end of ESPN Bet, and ongoing disputes with YouTube affecting subscriber access to key programming [8][10]. - Investors will be keen to see if the Kimmel suspension has led to significant subscriber losses and whether the company has gained subscribers ahead of the price increases [9]. - The fourth quarter may show a decline in box office performance due to tough comparisons with last year's hits, with the combined gross of current films being around 57% of last year's top performers [11]. Upcoming Content and Guidance - Disney is likely to highlight its upcoming content slate, including "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash," as well as a Taylor Swift docuseries launching on Disney+ [12]. - The company may provide early guidance for the next fiscal year, which could influence stock performance as the year ends [12].