"美元微笑"理论提出者：特朗普任期内美元将再跌13.5%

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon, maintains a long-term bearish outlook on the US dollar, predicting a 13.5% decline during Trump's remaining term despite a recent rebound [1]. Group 1: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The US dollar has fallen over 8% this year, potentially marking its worst year in eight years, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2]. - Jen's "dollar smile" theory suggests that the dollar tends to strengthen during periods of strong economic performance or deep recession, while it struggles during moderate growth phases [3]. - Jen anticipates that the next significant movement for the dollar will be downward, despite its recent rebound [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Jen argues that the decline in the dollar is primarily due to capital leaving US dollar assets rather than being attracted to other regions, indicating a soft landing for the US economy [3]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts a slowdown in US GDP growth from 2.8% last year to 2% in 2025, while the Eurozone is expected to grow by 1.2%, up from 0.9% in 2024 [4]. - Jen believes that the global economic performance is likely to surpass that of the US, with improving growth in Europe [3][4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Jen describes the current situation as a "multi-year dollar adjustment," suggesting that the weak dollar cycle will be prolonged [5].